Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst often regarded as Tesla’s most enthusiastic supporter on Wall Street, has revised his delivery estimates for the electric vehicle manufacturer.
He has decreased his forecast for first-quarter deliveries from 415,000 to 351,000 units, marking a reduction of approximately 10% compared to the same period last year.
This adjustment reflects a broader trend of diminishing demand for Tesla vehicles, particularly in Europe, where projections indicate a steep decline heading into 2025.
Optimistic about Tesla’s future in AI and robotics
Despite this significant reduction, Jonas maintains a bullish stance, recommending investors buy Tesla stock, which he believes will double in value. He posits that Tesla is strategically transitioning from a pure automotive entity to a diversified player in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics.
This shift, however, relies heavily on products that have yet to materialize, prompting skepticism among analysts and industry observers alike.
Jonas has also cut his total delivery estimate for the year, reducing it from 1.9 million to 1.6 million units. Moreover, his predictions for 2030 have shifted dramatically from an optimistic 5 million deliveries to 4 million, well below Elon Musk’s ambitious goal of reaching 20 million units by that same year.
Critics of Jonas argue that his upbeat assessments are disconnected from the current challenges facing Tesla, including plummeting sales and collapsing gross margins.
While Jonas remains optimistic about Tesla’s future in AI and robotics, his assertions may not align with the reality facing Tesla’s core automotive business. As the company grapples with declining demand and increased competition, its trajectory over the next few years remains uncertain.
Some analysts suggest that without significant breakthroughs in self-driving technology and other products, Tesla could struggle to regain its former dominance in the automotive space.