After two years of hype and expectation, Windows Vista is finally upon us. No sooner has the somewhat muted launch been made and already analysts are queuing up to dismiss the chances of Microsoft’s latest puppy making a major impact on the computing world. Undoubtedly the OS has made major strides in plugging security holes, improving mobile communication links and making the desktop look all pretty, but will consumers be excited enough to rush for an upgrade?
The IT boffins at Gartner think not, predicting that by this time next year, Vista will be running on a mere 10% of PCs, arguing that home users and businesses do not see a benefit in an immediate upgrade. According to the analysts’ blog:
“Microsoft promotes Vista as a remedy to a myriad of mobility challenges – power management, network awareness, offline access to important data, multiple displays, grab-and-go docking and readability – and the new features do make headway in these areas. Although Vista’s mobility features are useful, they are not essential. None of them, nor the sum, constitute an immediate “must have” for any organization. As a result, organizations should resist the idea of early migration ahead of desktop computers, unless specific business issues are being addressed.”
However, not everyone is so pessimistic about the chances of the latest version of Windows, including UK-based analysts Ovum. Software practice head David Mitchell predicts that 15% of PC users will adopt Windows Vista during its first year, compared to between 12 and 14% for Windows XP, which launched in October 2001. “That would make it the fastest moving operating system ever,” according to Mitchell.