The 2023 Oscars ceremony is about to take place and this year is one of the most contested in most categories. The quality of the nominated films is extremely high, and although some feature films such as The Fabelman or Everything Everywhere All at Once seem to be the favorites, anything can happen in the next few hours.
We can’t predict if this year there will be a Will Smith slap or an Ellen DeGeneres selfie, but what we can predict is who will win in the main categories of the awards. Therefore, we leave you with a betting pool that seeks nothing more than a bit of fun and adrenaline before the Academy of one hundred of Hollywood gives out their respective awards.
In the pool we have left out some of the more technical or short film awards, both for not being able to see everything (many shorts and documentaries are not accessible) and to focus on what really matters to most people. So let’s get to it.
Best photography
One section I would not like to leave out is Best Cinematography. This year, the cinematography of the nominated films could not be more spectacular. From the sober lighting of Tár to the gloominess of All Quiet on the Western Front, almost all of the nominees have a shot at the award.
I believe that Netflix’s film, All Quiet on the Front Lines will win the statuette, beating the other favorite of the night: Elvis. However, Andy Walker, cinematographer for Elvis, made history by becoming the first woman to win the ASC (Cinematography Syndicate Award), so she could pull off the upset.
- Who will win: No news from the front
- Who should win: Elvis
- Who can surprise: Elvis
Best International Film
Beyond the main candidates for the top categories, there is room for films from beyond Hollywood thanks to the award for Best International Film. In this case, it seems that the multi-award winning Argentina, 1985, will be the frontrunner. However, after sweeping the Bafta awards, it may surprise us all.
Be that as it may, the quality of the nominees means that any film could be a worthy winner, from Close to The Quiet Girl.
- Who will win: Argentina, 1985
- Who should win: Argentina, 1985
- Who can surprise: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Film
The quality of this year’s animated works is insane. Despite the fact that Pixar participates with Red and is the production company that usually wins these awards, this year it is nowhere near the main favorites: Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.
Everything seems to tip the scales in favor of Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix-exclusive film. Besides, he already won not too long ago for Best Picture and Best Director for The Way of Water, so he is someone appreciated by the Academy. But the Dreamworks film is excellent, and it can change everything.
- Who will win: Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro
- Who should win: Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro
- Who can surprise: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Best adapted screenplay
The category of best adapted screenplay changes a lot depending on the year. Sometimes there are so few that it is difficult to award one of the best films of the year. But other times there are sequels or adaptations of books, theater or any other medium that make this category more interesting.
This time around, we have a charming sequel like Daggers in the Back: Glass Onion that deserves all it can win. However, everything seems to be going for They Talk, although Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Front Lines could change everything. Things are evenly matched.
- Who will win: They talk
- Who should win: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Who can surprise: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Screenplay
The award for Best Original Screenplay, where most of the films nominated for Best Picture are competing, is even closer. Of course, all the films nominated here could take the award, as everything from The Fabelman to Souls in Sorrow in Inisherin are worthy candidates.
Considering the WGA Awards, the prelude to the Oscars organized by the Screenwriters Guild of America, the leading favorite is Everything Everywhere All at Once. But the Academy is not an exact science, and anyone could pull off the upset.
- Who will win: Everything Everywhere All at Oncee
- Who should win: The Banshees of Inisherin
- Who can surprise: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Supporting Actress
The actresses nominated in this category are really important in their films. Nothing would be All at Once Everywhere without Jamie Lee Curtis or Stephanie Hsu, and the same goes for Hong Chau in The Whale and Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin.
However, the woman who has every chance of winning here is Angela Bassett, who despite appearing in a feature film as weak as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, has earned a well-deserved nomination.
- Who will win: Angela Basset
- Who should win: Kerry Condon
- Who can surprise: Jamie Lee Curtis
Best Supporting Actor
Interestingly, some of the actors nominated in this category have very short roles. This is the case of Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin, but especially Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans, who only appears in one scene of the film.
In the opposite case we have Brendan Gleeson, who is practically starring. And also Ke Huy Quan, who is the biggest favorite for his role in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
- Who will win: Ke Huy Quan
- Who should win: Ke Huy Quan
- Who can surprise: Brendan Gleeson
Best Direction
In this ceremony, the nominees for best director are 6 men (5 nominees, but the Daniels are two). This is something that happens in most galas, but that in recent years had changed in favor of parity.
Be that as it may, the biggest favorite (and the one who deserves to win) in this category is Steven Spielberg. But the DGA, the Directors Guild Awards, were won by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once. So it’s a toss-up between these two choices.
- Who will win: Steven Spielberg
- Who should win: Steven Spielberg
- Who can surprise: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Best Actress
The highest award for female acting mixes great actresses who have been in the industry all their lives, such as Cate Blanchett in Tár, with less popular actresses who have played great roles, such as Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once and Ana de Armas in Blonde.
Blanchett is the main favorite. She already has two Oscars and this could be her third, so everything seems to be in her favor. But Michelle Yeoh, Ana de Armas and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) have all given sublime performances that have nothing to envy her.
- Who will win: Cate Blanchett
- Who should win: Ana de Armas
- Who can surprise: Michelle Williams
Best Actor
And what about the best actor? The star of the year to be crowned best performer is more than contested. Bill Nighy (Living) is perhaps the least known of the lot, but the rest play in a league of their own in which anyone could win.
That being said, everything seems to be settling between two options: Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. The former delivers a brutal performance in Elvis that has already earned him a Golden Globe, and the latter has an unrepeatable dramatic interpretation mixed with a unique story of overcoming. I’m still pinning my hopes on good old Colin Farrell… but I think I’m the only one.
- Who will win: Austin Butler
- Who should win: Colin Farrell
- Who can surprise: Brendan Fraser
Best Film
Finally, we come to the most important of all the categories: what will be the film of the year? Here the nominees go up to ten, and feature films such as Top Gun: Maverick or Avatar: The Way of Water, which seem to be forgotten in most categories, enter the list.
The Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere All at Once is the competition of the year. It’s an open secret that it will be all between these two films, and a lot would have to surprise the rest to win Best Picture. My heart goes out to Spielberg’s film, but it’s a 50/50 fight in which both deserve it all.
- Who will win: The Fabelmans
- Who should win: The Fabelmans
- Who can surprise: Everything Everywhere All at Once
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