Star Wars returns to theaters with The Mandalorian and Grogu, and analysts do not expect it to be a big success. Forecasts suggest it could have an initial gross of 80 million dollars in its first four days, a very good figure, but absolutely disastrous for a Star Wars franchise film. Especially considering that no franchise release has dropped below 100 million dollars, even those considered failures.
A franchise that operates on other levels
The least successful case for Star Wars so far has been that of Han Solo: a Star Wars story, which made 103 million dollars in its first four days. Although it made an acceptable box office of almost 400 million dollars worldwide, a production filled with problems and virtually no enthusiasm from fans led to it being an unmitigated failure for Disney.
In contrast, the last movie released on these same dates, the live-action film of Lilo & Stitch, was an absolute success. Making 182 million dollars over the same four-day holiday weekend, this is the figure they would aim to achieve with Star Wars, given the popularity of The Mandalorian over the years, which has turned both the titular character and Grogu, the wrongly named Baby Yoda, into some of the most popular characters in the franchise.
At Disney, they are confident that they can reverse these numbers before the upcoming May 22, the official worldwide release date of the movie. But perhaps both the Mandalorian and Baby Yoda, after all these years, have simply lost the appeal they once had with the audience.
