A new asteroid, designated as 2024 YR4, has been detected and has an approximate 1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. It seems that it is indeed good to invest in the asteroid defense technology that we have tested over the years.
Although this data is concerning, experts have pointed out that it is a manageable risk and there is no need to panic.
The European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA have placed 2024 YR4 at the top of their risk lists, being the only major known asteroid with an impact probability greater than 1%.
What we know about 2024 YR4
This object, which measures between 30 and 90 meters wide (a size comparable to the Statue of Liberty), is located in the yellow zone of the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, rated at 3.
According to available information, an asteroid of similar size impacts the Earth on average every few thousand years, causing severe regional damage, although it would not be a “planet killer.”
The ESA has indicated that the probability of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth could be approximately 1.2% in its next assessment.
Space agencies are collaborating to track and better understand the trajectory and size of the asteroid. Observations are being made, including the use of Chile’s Extremely Large Telescope, although it is possible that 2024 YR4 will move out of the field of view before any possibility of impact can be ruled out.
If the 2024 YR4 becomes a serious threat, NASA and other agencies are exploring defense options. Over time, new information is likely to emerge that will help reduce its risk level. If not, don’t worry everyone, we have the DART project.