This is pure fantastic speculation, of course. Warner was determined from the first minute to accept the genuine fortune that Netflix has shelled out to have its entire catalog and (above all) its intellectual properties, and there has been no spending by Paramount that convinced them otherwise. What’s the result? Who knows. Maybe everything will suddenly blow up and cinema will disappear, as some say, or perhaps Warner’s properties will increase in value and Ted Sarandos will keep his word to release films in theaters. And yet, in this climate of tense calm, there might be a solution that satisfies everyone: the wealthy and film lovers.
Solomonic Decision
The problem is more than obvious: Netflix wants to take over the streaming part, and Paramount mainly wants to focus on theater distribution. The former have never had any real interest in getting into the distribution business (beyond a few movies they release a couple of weeks before appearing on the platform), and the latter still haven’t managed to boost Paramount+, their VOD service with 79.1 million subscribers worldwide, which pales in comparison to HBO Max’s 128 million or Netflix’s more than 300 million.
It’s not that easy, of course, because no one is willing to give up a piece of the pie and Warner is being sold, as has already been mentioned, whole and uncut. And no one is willing to back down and allow two companies as different as Paramount (the conservative wing) and Netflix (the liberal wing) to control the same IPs and be able to create a new Harry Potter saga at the same time as a reinvention in the form of a series, or to treat Superman in two absolutely antagonistic ways. It’s all or nothing.
Netflix is quite clear that the bet is going to pay off, and that it can not only cover the $82.7 billion it has shelled out for Warner, but that it will also start generating profits very soon, adding more and more subscribers. Or, who knows, maybe they will look at Warner’s box office numbers this year, with things like a Minecraft movie or Superman, and decide to give big screen opportunities a chance instead of just limiting themselves to premieres on your television. However, while Paramount can indeed release in theaters without issues, its liquidity is a problem and it depends solely on how long David Ellison, its new director and one of the richest men in the world, can keep throwing money into the fire.
People who, instead of seeing the cold fabric of the Hollywood industry, prefer to think of an unreal “Why can’t we be friends?”, believe that they can divide the roles, why not. That Warner continues to make movies and series, some take care of distribution in theaters and others on the Internet, and everyone is happy. The idea wouldn’t be bad, if it weren’t because in this case everyone would win and lose at the same time: Why spend billions of dollars to buy one of the most famous production companies in Hollywood if afterwards you have to share the pie with someone else? Who would want to have the rights to DC and have to tread carefully with every decision in case your partner disagrees? It’s nonsensical. Nice, but nonsensical.
The reality is what it is, and we must accept it: Netflix has practically smashed cinema as we know it with a hammer, leaving everything on pause until it communicates what its measures will be from next year. Paramount is angry, Warner has bowed its head and accepted, and we are all holding our breath. Yes, it would be nice if someone took care of the distribution in theaters, but right now it only depends on a board of directors. And, no matter what they have said to reassure David Zaslav, the current CEO of Warner, things do not look good. Whether this is the requiem for a death foretold or a new rebirth, we will know sooner than we would like.
