Nintendo Switch 2 is the big event of the year. At least in terms of the video game world. If until recently it was GTA6, due to the completely unmatched dimensions of Rockstar’s game, the delay of its release until 2026 makes this, officially, the year of Nintendo. Although that also places it in a position it didn’t have before. Because while the industry previously expected to ride the wave of GTA6 to justify its numbers, now that obligation is going to fall, in large part, on Nintendo.
Is that possible? Is it an absurd possibility? Or when talking about Nintendo should we be at ease? Of course, this is something that is already being discussed. Less than two weeks before the console’s launch, which is on June 5th, both analysts and investors, as well as Nintendo itself, have something to say. And we find it interesting to shed some light on what the expectations are regarding this console.
The shadow of the first Switch is long
First of all, it must be stated an obvious fact. Nintendo Switch 2 lives in the shadow of its predecessor, Nintendo Switch. And it should also be said something perhaps less obvious. Its main competitor is neither PlayStation 5 nor Xbox Series X|S nor PC nor the Steam Deck, but the Nintendo Switch itself. Because the expectations placed on this console are absurd because its successor managed to break all unimaginable records.
The original Switch managed to sell 15 million units in its first 10 months of life. This is an extraordinary figure for any console and is what they should aspire to at Nintendo. Is it possible that this will happen? For now, the pre-sale of the console has been “extremely high,” with nearly 2.2 million requests just in Japan. Far exceeding Nintendo’s own expectations.
Now, this brings us to the various challenges that lie ahead for Nintendo. The first of these is to produce enough consoles to meet global demand. If the console is a success, but they don’t have enough units to satisfy it, it wouldn’t matter if it were successful or not. The second challenge is to maintain a steady flow of interest from players. This means having a catalog of games and new releases that makes them interested in the console and take the leap. This is perhaps where they may encounter the most problems.
The launch catalog of the Nintendo Switch 2 is very limited. And unlike the Nintendo Switch, they have neither shown nor promised anything for the first months of the console. It is important to remember that for the original console they promised a new major game each month, which they have not done again. This is further amplified by another problem: the price.
The price of the console is much higher than that of the first Switch. Even if we consider that being a much more powerful console it is not significantly more expensive, in comparison, its games are. With Nintendo’s own games costing between 80 and 90 euros, there is a very good reason not to make the leap to the new console: not to pay prices that a large part of the public sees as abusive. This has been evident in the reactions on social media and Nintendo’s streams, where the audience has reacted extremely negatively.
Nintendo: extremely conservative with Switch 2
Now, what does Nintendo think about all this? Obviously, they haven’t provided concrete data, but they have had to do what every publicly traded company is required to do: provide forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year. This allows us to get a rough idea of whether they believe things will go well, poorly, or moderately.
For the next fiscal year, that of Nintendo Switch 2, they expect to increase their year-on-year revenue by 63.1%. Similarly, they expect their net profit and operating profit to rise by up to 13.3%. Additionally, they say they expect to distribute 15 million units of Switch 2 by next March 2026, when the next fiscal year ends. This provides a rather cautious estimate of their figures.
Why prudent? On paper, they may sound like spectacular figures, but the reality is that they are quite conservative. If Nintendo Switch 2 is a moderate success, it should be able to reach those figures without any problem. In fact, analysts are convinced that it should be able to surpass the numbers that Nintendo itself has provided without any issues.
Market analysts estimate that a realistic figure could be around 17 million units of Nintendo Switch 2 sold. While the more optimistic ones talk about between 18 and 20 million units during the first year. A very, very generous figure that would put it ahead of what Nintendo Switch was and that does not seem to take into account all the problems arising from Nintendo’s current policies and all the issues that are also beyond its control. Because all these forecasts could fall on deaf ears if someone changes their mind again about their tariff policies.
Donald Trump, the big problem for Nintendo
Donald Trump’s tariffs are a danger, not for the launch of Switch 2, but for its medium-term continuity. Nintendo has already stated that if implemented, they will have to consider reviewing the price of the console as it would be unsustainable to sell it at the current price. This would undoubtedly have a significant impact on sales. The impact would not only be on the console itself but also on its accessories, which could increase by up to 30%, at a minimum, in the United States.
With the 90-day extension given by President Trump, it is possible that they can create a contingency plan to minimize the short- and medium-term impact. But what is certain is that, if these tariffs are implemented, they will affect the future of the console in the long term.
Can Nintendo Switch 2 go wrong? Could it be a new WiiU? Nothing points to that possibility. It is a console that has sparked public interest and, despite Nintendo not having done a good job on many fronts and the geopolitical situation not being the best, it seems that, at the very least, it can perform well. But there is a big gap between performing well and being a success like the Nintendo Switch. We will see if it is enough to just perform well or if they need that extra. And above all, if they are capable of achieving it.
